Ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC)/ thermohaline circulation (THC) Lecture notes: THC: https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/EPS131/Sources/07-THC/3-notes-THC-Stommel-model.pdf Saddle node: page 47 in: https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/APM203/Sources/lectures/lecture_02_bif1d1.pdf Hopf: P 26-26 in: https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/APM203/Sources/lectures/lecture_07_bif2d3.pdf Motivation: Temperature, salinity, and THC slides from EPS131 first lecture from EPS131/Sources/07-THC: 1a-THC-belt.jpeg 1c-THC-cfc-animation-horizontal.gif 1d-THC-cfc-animation-vertical.mpg 1e-YouTube - The Day After Tomorrow.webloc 1g-Surface_air-T_deviations-from-zonal-mean-Rahmstrof.jpg Stommel 1961 model, bifurcations, multiple equilibria, hysteresis (from EPS131: 3-notes-THC-Stommel-model.pdf 1h-vellinga-wood-THC-collapse-Hadley-model.pdf 4b-Rahmstorf-et-al-2005-Stommel-bifurcation-GCM-intercomparison.pdf 6c-THC-in-global-warming-Bryden_etal_2005.pdf) saddle-node bifurcation and hysteresis THC variability Motivation: present day and past climate variability (from EPS131: 2a-rapid_transports2.png little ice age and abrupt climate change slides from EPS-131-lecture-01-intro-2-phys-oceanogr.pptx) Excitation of an oscillatory mode: Figs 3,4 from Tziperman-Toggweiler-Feliks-Bryan-1994.pdf and Hopf bifurcation notes Non-normal transient growth, introduction, writing PDE in matrix form, optimal i.c. non normal excitation of THC variability (slides #2,3,5,6,7,9 from nonormal_THC_short.pdf) Time permitting: stochastic optimals (Tziperman-Ioannou 2002, section 4, eqns 11-14)